Chapter 10: Carrying Capacity

 

Sergei Zimov is head of a scientific station at Cherskii, northern Yakutia: Surely, he said, plenty of mammoth-remains are entombed in the permafrost. After 25 years of observation on the taiga and tundra, he and his colleagues had found that the so-called Duvannyi Yar sediments near Cherskii span some 90,000 years, and contain roughly 600 skeletons per square-kilometer. Assuming that conditions for mammoth preservation were good for only certain periods during the late Pleistocene, Zimov estimates that the average density of the mammoths around Duvanny Yar during the Great Ice Age was sixty individuals for every hundred square-kilometers – a density rivaling that of elephants on the African Savanna. Richard Stone, Mammoth, Resurrection of an Ice Age Giant (2001:68, 69), Editor of Science. – Comment: Duvannyi Yar, Old Russian for “windy cliff”, a renowned mammoth site.

 

How many mammoths have lived up there per square-kilometer? How much elephant biomass has been then up there per square kilometer? How large has been then up there the total large mammal biomass? How large had to be then up there annual aboveground plant-production and precipitation? And where is this plant- and large mammal biomass able to grow now?

0.6 mth/km²m = 1.0 mth/1.666 km²

 

According to the Russian scientist Sergei Zimov at his research station in Cherskii, northern Yakutia, there have been 0.6 woolly-mammoths per square-kilometer at Duvannyi Yar, at the “windy cliff” at the present arctic coast, during the Great Ice Age, or 1 woolly-mammoth per 1.666 km².

 

According to Prof. R. Dale Guthrie (1968:352, 353; 1996:122), the placer gold mining sites at Fairbanks Creek, Engineer Creek, Cripple Creek, and Gold Hill near Fairbanks, Central Alaska, had an average biomass of woolly-mammoths of 33.4%. He uses 3.000 kg as an average weight of the woolly-mammoth. That is for old and young, male and female. But this seems to be a little too high.

 

David Western (1980:51) uses an average body weight for the African savanna elephant of 2575 kg. When using 2575 kg for the average Alaskan woolly-mammoth, the average biomass for woolly-mammoths at the for placer-gold mining-sites near Fairbanks, Central Alaska, is then 28.668% of the total large mammal biomass. The mammoth biomass in central Alaska is then, at 28.668%, 1545 kg/km². Total large mammal biomass at the four placer gold mining sites near Fairbanks, Alaska, is then 3844.3 kg/km².

 

This is reasonable. At this large mammal biomass, also the tiger and the cave lion would have been able to live as residents, raising cubs.

 

The African elephant is still able to live, where 300 mm of rain have produced about 250 g DM/m² per year. That is, during 8 to 9 wet months of the year. Otherwise the grass would be too old and would contain too many fibers and too little protein. We should realize here: The African elephant and other large grazers will starve to death, due to lack of protein, also in a 2-3 m tall grassland, if it contains too little protein.

 

During the Last Great Ice Age, the climate is supposed to have been very dry. In the Polar Regions annual precipitation has been then only half as large as it is now. Today, in many northern parts it is about 200 to 300 mm precipitation per year. During the Last Great Ice Age it has been then only half as much, 100 to 150 mm. That is, at about 70° North and still further north. The average annual net-radiation at the earth’s-surface up there varies from 10.0 kcal cm² in the southern parts, to 5.0 kcal cm² further north.

 

Latitude

Annual net radiation kcal.cm² at earth’s surface

Annual precipitation (mm)

Annual plant-production

g/m² on average grassland (dry weight)

Annual plant-production g/m² on poor grassland (dry weight)

70° North

10.0

100

5.0

3.0

70° North

10.0

150

7.5

4.5

70° North

10.0

200

10.0

6.0

70° North

10.0

2381

250

 

70° North

10.0

4167

 

250

70° North

7.5

3333

250

 

70° North

7.5

5555

 

250

70° North

5.0

5000

250

 

70° North

5.0

8333

 

250

 

Up there, as an example, near 70° North at 10 kcal.cm² net-radiation at the earth’s-surface, at 100 mm precipitation per year, 5.0 g/m² aboveground plant-mass (dry-weight) will grow on the average grassland, and only 3.0 g DM/m² on a poor grassland. This does not include wet grasslands at ponds and lake shores, which get most or all of their water from below, not from above.

 

According to Andrei Zimov at Cherskii, N.E. Yakutia, the Duvannyi Yar area (windy coast) at the present arctic coast 0.6 mammoths have lived there at the Last Great Ice Age. That is a total large mammal biomass of 3844.3 kg/km². The mammoth, steppe bison and wild horse make up most of this large mammal biomass. Would this mammoth fauna have been able to live up there in a severe arctic climate. We should remember here: In winter, the temperature went down to –100° Celsius. It was so cold and dry up there, that trees and large shrubs were not able to grow. The northern treeline has moved then far down to southern Siberia, and southeastern Europe. I have found out now about this:

 

The forest-tundra, near 65° North, has about 17.5 (15-20) kcal.cm² net-radiation at the earth’s-surface. 1 mm annual precipitation produces up there (or supports) 500 g/km² ungulate biomass.

100 mm annual precipitation produces there 500 000 g or 500 kgkm² ungulate biomass.

150 mm annual precipitation produces there 750 000 g or 750 kg/km² ungulate biomass.

 

The arctic tundra, near 70° North, has about 12.5 (10-15) kcal cm.² net-radiation at the earth’s-surface. 1 mm annual precipitation produces up there (or supports) 110 g/km² ungulate biomass.

 

100 mm annual precipitation produces there 11,000 g or 11 kg/km² ungulate biomass.

150 mm annual precipitation produces there 16.500 g or 16.5 kg/km² ungulate biomass.

 

 

The polar-desert, at 70-80° North, at 7.5 (5-10) kcal.cm² produces 50 grams ungulate biomass per millimeter precipitation per square-kilometer per year.

 

100 mm annual precipitation produces or supports up there 5000 g or 5 kg/km² hoofed animal biomass.

150 mm annual precipitation produces or supports up there 7500 grams or 7.5 kg/km² hoofed animal biomass.

 

This clearly shows me:

 

(1) The aboveground plant-biomass, needed to feed the elephant, is not able to grow in an arctic climate, neither in the forest-tundra, nor in the arctic tundra, nor in the steppe-tundra, nor in the polar-desert, nor in any other kind of arctic plant-cover. It is too cool, and the time, in which the plants are able to grow up there, is too short.

 

(2) The large mammal biomass of 3844 kg/km² (mostly of mammoths, steppe bison, and wild horses) is not able to live in an arctic climate. These herds of woolly-mammoths, steppe-bison, and wild horses would starve to death in the Far North in an arctic climate. Neither the forest-steppe, nor the arctic tundra, nor the steppe-tundra, nor the polar-desert, nor any other kind of arctic plant-cover would be able to support the mammoth-fauna. There is too little food, because it is too cold and too dry, and because the time, in which the plants are able to grow, is too short.

 

(3) The mammoth-fauna, with its biomass of 3844 kg, is only able to grow in a temperate climate, as we find it now much further south in southern Siberia and southern Canada, in the forest-steppe (aspen-parkland) or meadow-steppe (tall grassland)

 

The boreal mixed forest in North America (southwestern Canada), near 55° North, has an annual net-radiation at the earth’s surface of about 33 kcal.cm². 1 mm of annual precipitation produces and support there 14,250 g ungulate biomass per square-kilometer.

 

 

Annual precipitation (mm)

Ungulate biomass (kg/km²)

100

1425

200

2850

300

4275

  

The South Canadian native grassland, at Lacombe, in the Province of Alberta, S.W. Canada, at 52° North has about 35 kcal cm² annual net-radiation at the earth’s-surface. 1 mm of annual precipitation produces there 9219 grams ungulate biomass.

 

Annual precipitation (mm)

Ungulate biomass (kg/km²)

100

922

200

1844

300

2766

400

3687

  

What does that show us? – This shows me: The mammoth-fauna in northeastern Siberia, in northeastern Yakutia, with its large mammal biomass of 3844 kg/km² was only able to live up there in the following climate:

 

Mean annual net-radiation at the earth’s-surface up there had to be then 33-35 kcal cm², as we find it now in southern Canada near 52-55° North, instead of only 5-15 kcal cm² near 70-80° North.

 

In this climate we need then 300-400 mm precipitation per year. In an arctic climate this is not possible. This disproves once for all times quantitatively the assumed adaptation of the woolly-mammoth to a severe arctic climate. The assumed adaptation of the woolly-mammoth to severe arctic cold has nothing to do whatsoever with serious scientific research. It is only a pious myth, without a thread of scientific proof.

 

Sergei Zimov, at Cherskii, northern Yakutia: Surely, he said, plenty of mammoth remains are entombed in the permafrost. After 25 years of observation on the taiga and tundra, he and his colleagues had found that the so-called Duvannyi Yar sediments near Cherskii span some 90,000 years, and contain roughly 600 skeletons per square kilometer. Assuming that conditions for mammoth preservation were good for only certain periods during the late Pleistocene, Zimov estimates that the average density of the mammoths around Duvannyi Yar during the Great Ice Age was sixty individuals for every hundred square kilometers – a density rivaling that of elephants on the African Savanna. Stone, R. 2001:68, 69 (0.6 mth/km²m = 1.0 mth/1.666 km²).

 

 

Mammoth Fauna and Elephant Fauna

 

A Dolgan woman, the museum’s director, Yevdokiya Aksenova, stated: Since the 1700s, Khatanga has been a center of the mammoth trade, she explained, hauling out roughly 50,000 tusks from the Taimyr Peninsula in the last few hundred years. Stone, R. 2001:199.

 

 

Total biomass of African arid savanna herbivores and annual rainfall

 

Rainfall mm/year

Total biomass kg/km²

Rainfall mm/year

Total biomass kg/km²

100

78

600

8250

150

200

650

8400

200

370

700

8500

250

500

750

8700

300

2000

800

8800

350

3500

850

9000

400

5000

900

9150

450

7600

950

9300

500

7600

1000

9455

550

8100

1500

9620

 

Adapted from R. East (1984) Fig. 3a. Total biomass of African arid savanna herbivores and mean annual rainfall. Soil nutrient status: high. In: “Rainfall, soil nutrient status and biomass of large African savanna mammals” in African Journal of Ecology 22:245-270 (1984)

 

 

Biomass of African Buffalo and annual rainfall

 

Rainfall mm/year

Buffalo biomass kg/km²

Rainfall mm/year

Buffalo biomass kg/km²

50

50

700

910

100

100

750

962

150

130

800

2400

200

200

850

3900

250

219

900

5300

300

400

950

6850

350

500

1000

8342

400

600

1050

8440

450

710

1100

8550

500

820

1150

8700

550

820

1200

8800

600

880

1250

8950

650

900

1300

9100

 

Adapted from R. East (1984) Fig. 1. Biomass of African buffalo and mean annual rainfall. In: “Rainfall, soil nutrient status and biomass of large African savanna mammals” in African Journal of Ecology 22:245-270 (1984)

 

For example: at 1300 mm rainfall per year, there will be up to 9100 kg/km² buffalo biomass on the African savanna, but 9500 kg/km² elephant biomass (see, please, next table below). That is 400 kg/km² more. Why? Because the elephant is much larger than the buffalo and does have, therefore, a lower metabolic rate. At a lower metabolic rate the elephant needs less food per kilogram of metabolic bodyweight per day, than the buffalo. Thus, the same amount of rainfall and plant production is able to support a little more elephant biomass than buffalo biomass.

 

 

Biomass of African Elephant and annual rainfall

 

Rainfall mm/year

Elephant biomass kg/km²

Rainfall mm year

Elephant biomass kg/km²

100

50

750

6897

150

80

800

7300

200

95

850

7700

250

110

900

8100

300

260

950

8500

350

400

1000

8925

400

600

1050

9000

450

750

1100

9100

500

919

1150

9200

550

2100

1200

9300

600

3300

1250

9391

650

4500

1300

9500

700

5700

1350

9600

 

Adapted from R. East (1984) Fig. 1. Biomass of African elephant and mean annual rainfall. In: “Rainfall, soil nutrient status and biomass of large African savanna mammals” in African Journal of Ecology 22:245-270 (1984).

 

For example: at 1300 mm rainfall per year, there will be up to 9500 kg/km² elephant biomass on the African savanna, but only 9100 kg/km² buffalo biomass (see, please, other table above). Why? Because the elephant is much larger than the buffalo and does have, therefore, a lower metabolic rate. At a lower metabolic rate the elephant needs less food per kilogram of metabolic bodyweight per day than the buffalo. Thus, the same amount of rainfall and plant production will be able to support a little more elephant biomass than buffalo biomass.

 

 

 

Mammoth Extinction

 

Why are the herds of woolly mammoths, wild horses, and steppe bison not grazing in the Far North anymore: up to the shores of the Arctic Sea? Why have they perished? – There are now two basic explanations, or dogmas of the ice age theory, as now commonly taught:

 

(1)   During the Last Glaciation of the late Pleistocene, with its peak near 21,000-18,000 years ago, central and northern Eurasia and Yukon/Alaska were very cold and dry. Large ice sheets were covering much of the northern hemisphere. The Arctic Ocean was deeply frozen throughout the year. It was so cold and dry that only periglacial tundra or tundra-steppe were able to grow up there. At the end of the Last Glaciation, some 10,000-12,000 years ago, it became then warm and wet. The dry tundra was replaced by the soggy tundra, as it is growing now in northern Siberia and Alaska. And this soggy tundra was not able anymore, to feed the herds of woolly mammoths, steppe bison, and steppe horses (N. K. Vereshchagin). – This idea I have thoroughly disproved here. This hypothesis also does not explain, why the herds of the mammoth fauna have also perished much further south, where there was no soggy tundra, but zonal steppe and forest-steppe.

 

(2)   The other theory, now also popular among the advocates of the ice age theory, is known as the “blitzkrieg model”. It says: The herds of woolly mammoths, bison, and wild horses of the Far North have not died out at all, because the climate had become warmer and wetter at the end of the Last Ice Age. Instead, bands of human hunters have moved into northeastern Siberia and Alaska in search of food. They killed off the herds of large mammals in a sort of blitzkrieg, starting in northeastern Siberia. Then they went across Bering Landbridge, into Alaska, and the rest of North America (Paul S. Martin). This blitzkrieg story begins with a large ungulate biomass, living on periglacial tundra (next to glaciers and ice sheets), or tundra-steppe. This periglacial tundra and tundra-steppe was growing in a severe arctic climate, much colder, than it is now in northeastern Siberia. – How much large mammal prey biomass is supposed to have lived then in N.E. Siberia and Alaska on this periglacial tundra, before it was wiped out by human hunters? And could this amount of prey biomass have grown there in an arctic climate?

 

The well-known American paleontologist Paul S. Martin (1982:400) says about this periglacial tundra of the Last Ice Age of N.E. Siberia and Alaska, before the bands of human hunters came there: It had a large mammal prey biomass of 5,000 lbs per square mile. That is 750 kg/km².

 

Some supporters of this blitzkrieg model seem to have noticed that this would not have been quite enough. Stephen L. Whittington and Bennet Dyke state therefore under the heading ‘Simulating Overkill’ in Quaternary Extinctions (1989:454), edited by Paul S. Martin and R. G. Klein: The periglacial tundra of the Last Glaciation of N.E. Siberia and Alaska, growing in a severe arctic climate, had a large mammal prey biomass of 25 animal units per square mile. That are 4378 kg/km².

 

Neither a prey biomass of 720 kg/km², nor of 4,378 kg/km² could grow in an arctic climate, on periglacial tundra, nor on any other type of arctic plant-cover, because it was far too cold. This prey biomass of 4378 kg/km² is growing now in the boreal mixed forest, in the aspen parkland of North America and Eurasia in a temperate climate. And there is no permafrost! This amount of ungulate biomass cannot grow in an arctic climate at all.

 

The arctic tundra has now a ungulate biomass of only 18-26 kg/km². And the forest-tundra has 50-200 kg/km² (Hudson, R. J. and F. L. Bunnel, 1980:210). When the woolly mammoth and the cave lion were living in northern Siberia and Alaska, there has been then indeed an ungulate biomass of at least 4378 kg/km². That is correct. But it has grown then in a mild, temperate climate: before the global Flood of Noah’s days. The blitzkrieg model has been weighed on the scales and has been found wanting. It does not agree with the scientific fact, known now, at all.

 

 

The Flood in the Bible

 

The past is the key to the present. The finds of the frozen bodies of the woolly mammoth and woolly rhinoceros in northern Siberia and Alaska we can only understand through the Bible, the inspired Word of the true God, whose name is Jehovah. The eyewitness report about the global Flood in Noah’s days, in 2370 B.C.E. has been correctly preserved in the Bible till our time. Geologists throughout the world have called the late Pleistocene finds at first correctly “diluvial”, referring to, or having to do with the “diluvium”, the Flood or Deluge. What does the Bible tell us about this global Flood and its cause? – I shall quote here briefly a few texts:

 

“After that God said to Noah: ‘The end of all flesh has come before me, because the earth is full of violence as a result of them; and here I am bringing them to ruin together with the earth. Make for yourself an ark out of wood of a resinous tree. You will make compartments in the ark, and you must cover it inside and outside with tar. And this is how you will make it: three hundred cubits the length of the ark, fifty cubits its height. You will make a tso’har (roof, or window) for the ark, and you will complete it to the extent of a cubit upward, and the entrance of the ark you will put in its side; you will make it with a lower (story), a second (story) and a third (story). And as for me, here I am bringing the deluge of waters upon the earth to bring to ruin all flesh in which the force of life is active from under the heavens. Everything that is in the earth will expire.” Genesis 6:13-17 (1984) NW.

 

“After that Jehovah said to Noah: ‘Go, you and all your household, into the ark, because you are the one I have seen to be righteous before me among this generation. Of every clean beast you must take to yourself by sevens, the sire and its mate; and of every beast that is not clean just two, the sire and its mate; also of the flying creatures of the heavens by sevens, male and female, to preserve offspring alive on the surface of the entire earth. For in just seven days more I am making it rain upon the earth forty days and forty nights; and I will wipe every existing thing that I have made off the surface of the ground.’  And Noah proceeded to do according to all that Jehovah had commanded. And Noah was six hundred years old when the deluge of waters occurred on the earth. So Noah went in, and his sons and his wife and his sons’ wives with him, into the ark ahead of the waters of the deluge. Of every clean beast and of every beast that is not clean and of the flying creatures and everything that moves on the ground, they went in by twos to Noah inside the ark, male and female, just as God had commanded Noah. And seven days later it turned out that the waters of the deluge had come upon the earth.

 

“In the six hundredth year of Noah’s life, in the second month, on the seventeenth day of the month, on this day all the springs of the vast watery deep were broken open and the floodgates of the heavens were opened. And the downpour upon the earth went on for forty days and forty nights. On this very day Noah went in, and Shem, and Ham and Japhet, Noah’s sons, and the wife of Noah and the three wives of his sons with him, into the ark, they and ever wild beast according to its kind, and every domestic animal according to its kind, and every moving animal that moves on the earth according to its kind, and every flying creature according to its kind, every bird, every winged creature. And they kept on going to Noah inside the ark, two by two, of every sort of flesh in which the force of life was active. And those going in, male and female of every sort of flesh, went in, just as God had commanded him. After that Jehovah shut the door behind him.

 

“And the deluge went on for forty days upon the earth, and the waters kept on increasing and began carrying the ark and it was floating high above the earth. And the waters became overwhelming and kept increasing greatly upon the earth, but the ark kept going on the surface of the waters. And the waters overwhelmed the earth so greatly that all the tall mountains that were under the whole heavens came to be covered. Up to fifteen cubits the waters overwhelmed them and the mountains became covered.

 

“So all flesh that was moving upon the earth expired, among the flying creatures and among the domestic animals and among the wild beasts and among the swarms that were swarming upon the earth, and all mankind. Everything in which the breath of the force of life was active in its nostrils, namely, all that were on the dry ground, died. Thus he wiped out every existing thing that was on the surface of the ground, from man to beast, to moving animal and to flying creature of the heavens, and they were wiped off the earth; and only Noah and those who were with him in the ark kept on surviving. And the waters continued overwhelming the earth a hundred and fifty days.” Genesis 7:1-24 (1984) NW

 

“After that God remembered Noah and every wild beast and every domestic animal that was with him in the ark, and God caused a wind to pass over the earth, and the waters began to subside. And the springs of the watery deep and the floodgates of the heavens became stopped up, and so the downpour from the heavens was restrained. And the waters began receding from off the earth, progressively receding; and at the end of a hundred and fifty days the waters were lacking. And in the seventh month, on the seventeenth day of the month, the ark came to rest on the mountains of Ararat. And the waters kept on progressively lessening until the tenth month. In the tenth month, on the first of the month, the tops of the mountains appeared.

 

“So it occurred that at the end of forty days Noah proceeded to open the window of the ark that he had made. After that he sent out a raven, and it continued flying outdoors, going and returning, until the waters dried off the earth. … Now in the sixth hundred and first year, in the first month, on the first day of the month, it came about that the waters had drained from off the earth; and Noah proceeded to remove the covering of the ark and to look, and here the surface of the ground had drained dry. And in the second month, on the twenty-seventeenth day of the month, the earth had dried off.” Genesis 8:1-7, 13, 14 (1984) NW

 

“God now spoke to Noah, saying: ‘Go out of the ark, you and your wife and your sons and your sons’ wives with you. Ever living creature that is with you of every sort of flesh, among the flying creatures and among the beasts and among all the moving animals that move upon the earth, bring out with you, as they must swarm in the earth and be fruitful and become many upon the earth.

 

“At that Noah went out, and also his sons and his wife and his sons’ wives with him. Every living creature, every moving animal and every flying creature, everything that moves on the earth, according to their families they went out of the ark. And Noah began to build an altar to Jehovah and to take some of all the clean beasts and of all the clean flying creatures and to offer burnt offerings upon the altar. And Jehovah began to smell a restful odor, and so Jehovah said in his heart: ‘Never again shall I call down evil upon the ground on man’s account, because the inclination of the heart of man is bad from his youth up; and never again shall I deal every living thing a blow just as I have done. For all the days the earth continuous, seed sowing and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night, will never cease.’ And God went on to bless Noah and his sons and to say to them: ‘Be fruitful and become many and fill the earth.’” Genesis 8:15-22; 9:1 MW.

 

“And God added: ‘This is the sign of the covenant that I am giving between me and you and every living soul that is with you, for the generations to time indefinite. My rainbow I do give in the cloud, and it must serve as a sign of the covenant between me and the earth. And it shall occur that when I bring a cloud over the earth, then the rainbow will certainly appear in the cloud. And I shall certainly remember my covenant, which is between me and you and every living soul among all flesh; and no more will the waters become a deluge to bring all flesh to ruin. And the rainbow must occur in the cloud, and I shall certainly see it to remember the covenant to time indefinite between God and every living soul among all flesh that is upon the earth.” Genesis 9:12-16 NW.

 

Where has all the water of the global Flood gone? What does the Bible say about this? In Psalms 104:5-9 NW we read: “With a watery deep just like a garment you [Jehovah] covered it. The waters where standing above the very mountains. At your rebuke they began to flee. At the sound of your thunder they were sent running in panic. Mountains proceeded to ascend, Valley plains proceeded to descend. To the place that you have founded for them. A boundary you set, beyond which they should not pass. That they should not again cover the earth.”

 

Before the global Flood of Noah’s days there has also been water above the earth. The Far North would have had then a mild, temperate climate, without an arctic winter, like today:

 

“For, according to their wish, this fact escapes their notice, that there were heavens from of old and an earth standing compactly out of water and in the midst of water by the word of God; and by those means the world of that time suffered destruction when it was deluged with water. By the same word the heavens and the earth that are now are stored up for fire and are being reserved to the day of judgment and of destruction of the ungodly men.” 2 Peter 3:5-7 (1984) NW

 

Also the Lord Jesus Christ referred to the Flood as an historical fact. He reports about this as an eyewitness, because in his pre-human existence he has seen this himself. He said: “For just as the days of Noah were, so the presence of the Son of man [of Jesus Christ] will be. For as they were in those days before the flood, eating and drinking, men marrying and women being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark; and they took no note until the flood came and swept them all away, so the presence of the Son of man [of Jesus Christ] will be.” Matthew 24:37-39 (1984) NW